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USD/JPY Breakout Attempt Foreshadowing 'Risk' Rally?

USD/JPY Breakout Attempt Foreshadowing 'Risk' Rally?

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY turning through ¥104.35 pivot from early-September.

- Breakout in USD/JPY coincides with US S&P 500 consolidating in a triangle.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, October 25, 2016.

The US Dollar continues to firm up (DXY, USDOLLAR) thanks to December rate hike probabilities nudging higher the past few days, from near 63% at the end of last week to approximately 70% today. In turn, we've seen pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD maintain their bearish technical bias, continuing to follow their respective daily 8-EMAs lower.

However, neither EUR/USD nor GBP/USD are of much interest today, relatively speaking; the resilience of AUD/USD and the potential breakout in USD/JPY are more pertinent indicators for the general 'risk' tone of the market. By these points of view, 'risk' looks to be fairly steady and could potential flip into a violent 'on' mode in the near-future: AUD/USD is trading in a short-term inverted H&S pattern (bullish implications) while attempting to break through the trendline from the January 2015 high; and USD/JPY is attempting to pivot through the early-September swing high near ¥104.35.

Chart 1: USD/JPY Daily Chart (March 2016 to October 2016)

USD/JPY Breakout Attempt Foreshadowing 'Risk' Rally?

USD/JPY's attempt at a turn higher, alongside AUD/USD resilience, seemingly points to a situation where risk appetite could increase over the coming days. A look at US equity markets reveals equal potential for further constructive price action: the US S&P 500's symmetrical triangle is holding above prior resistance after a recent breakout.

See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, DXY, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: Euro Weakness Unleashed as Draghi Dismisses Immediate Taper Concerns

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.