News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 House Price Index MoM (AUG) due at 13:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.88%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.65%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/N3lFhLUE67
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/ZJOEtpGUIq https://t.co/mqU8ND0BqU
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.41% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.36% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.16% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/sCW4DtQP6y
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (SEP) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders MoM (SEP) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • White House spokeswoman says administration is confident that it can reach COVID aid package in coming weeks - Fox News
  • 🇲🇽 Balance of Trade (SEP) Actual: $4.385B Expected: $3.795B Previous: $6.116B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Balance of Trade (SEP) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $3.795B Previous: $6.116B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • EU Commission says both the EU and UK are engaging intensively to reach a deal $GBP
Preview for USD and September NFPs; GBP's Brexit Backlash

Preview for USD and September NFPs; GBP's Brexit Backlash

2016-10-07 11:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Both DXY and USDOLLAR have started to clear breakout levels.

- No definite explanation for last night's mini-flash crash in the British Pound...best guess? Algos breaking down in an illiquid market.

- See the DailyFX economic calendar for the week of October 2 to October 7.

The September US NFP report will move markets at 12:30 GMT today. Markets probably won't care for much longer after that. A simply modest print may prove to be all the US Dollar needs to regain some footing, as its entire rally recently has been driven by negative exogenous factors (Brexit fears, European banking issues, viability of BOJ easing) rather than positive endogenous factors (the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3'16 GDP tracker has sunk from +3.8% to +2.2% since early-August). Much of the US Dollar's recent strength can simply be attributed to causes elsewhere.

As discussed yesterday, the trend of +200K jobs growth per month has recently been a psychological level for markets, but Fed leaders and centrists (the Goldilocks of the Fed; not too hawkish or too dovish) tend have another number in mind. In October 2015, San Fran Fed President John Williams wrote in a research note that he believed growth of +100K jobs per month was enough to sustain the growth in the labor force and maintain the current unemployment rate. In December 2015, Chair Janet Yellen reiterated this same view.

By the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, assuming a 4.8% longer term unemployment rate, the economy only needs +105k job growth per month to sustain that level. Regardless of today's report, there's another factor to consider when looking at the potential impact on Fed funds futures contract implied probabilities: the US Presidential elections.

With today's NFP report being one of three before the December meeting (when the Fed next furnishes its staff economic projections), and the US presidential election in such close proximity to the Fed's November meeting, it seems very likely that today's US labor market report leaves only a small footprint in traders' minds.

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: US Dollar Technical Posture Improving Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES