Looking Ahead to Q4, Volatility for EUR, USD, GBP Seems Certain
- EUR/USD in the midst of an historic period of price compression.
- GBP-crosses moving in tandem with influence of Brexit present.
- See the DailyFX economic calendar for the week of September 25 to September 30, 2016.
US economic data released today will unlikely move the needle for the Federal Reserve before the December meeting. Today's PCE report comes during an approaching end-of-the-year crunch time for the Federal Reserve, having begun the year projecting four interest rate increases this year. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) of March this year showed a decrease to two expected hikes; September’s SEP showed a significant disallignment among Fed officials of when to next raise rates.
In the September meeting, three Fed regional bank Presidents dissented, preferring to raise rates, while the Governors all preferred to stay pat. A fall from four projected hikes to zero could damage Fed credibility so look for good data to strengthen the cause to raise rates.
The Fed meets next in November but expectations are mostly for a December rate rise. As of this morning, markets are only pricing in an 8% chance for November and a 52% chance for December.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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