News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.45% Previous: 1.33% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • (ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Outlook: SGD, THB, IDR, PHP May Benefit on Slowing Covid Growth, Soft NFPs #USD #ASEAN $USDSGD $USDTHB $USDIDR $USDPHP https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/08/02/US-Dollar-Outlook-SGD-THB-IDR-PHP-May-Benefit-on-Slowing-Covid-Growth-Soft-NFPs.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/e5WczRhUl6
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/efGjwnJaKm
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.12% Silver: -0.30% Oil - US Crude: -1.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/b9pJgSOH8O
  • RT @Yeap_IG: #IGMorningthoughts: - 89% of #SP500 companies outperformed earnings thus far, but only 0.2% gain in SP500 since start of earni…
  • Gold prices risk forming a "Double Top" pattern - #GOLD chart https://t.co/pxGxpBTGPA
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/W36DdxonII
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.87%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RKCkZLF5Pw
  • Keppel Corp is seeking to buy Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) for S$2.2 billion following the spin-off of its media assets, and plans to delist and privatize the company - BBG
  • S&P 500 Futures Lift Nikkei 225, Regulatory Risks Hit Chinese Stocks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/08/02/SP-500-Futures-Lift-Nikkei-225-Regulatory-Risks-Hit-Chinese-Stocks.html https://t.co/bBmLaL5aHB
Few US Data Pre-FOMC Keeps Markets on Edge

Few US Data Pre-FOMC Keeps Markets on Edge

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Major US data pre-FOMC (NFPs, CPI, retail sales) out of the way.

- Quiet calendar next few days means cross-market flows matter more.

- FX market volatility will run higher next week with the FOMC and BOJ meetings - it's a good time to review risk management principles.

The USDOLLAR Index is having a tough time running higher with a FOMC 'hold' looming around the corner. After all, markets are only pricing in a 20% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, and there's a 54% chance of a hike by December.

Ultimately, with the Fed having had forecast three to four rate hikes for 2016 at its December 2015 meeting, it needs to save face by hiking at least once this year. We're not surprised it's come down to this, having recognized in January that the disparity between the Fed's own forecast and market expectations would need to be resolved, concluding: "Someone is wrong, and it looks like its the Fed."

With Fed funds futures tempered, the USDOLLAR Index is lacking the necessary catalyst for a decisive break higher pre-FOMC. Concurrently, there's not much to look for on the US economic calendar over the coming days either: just the NAHB Housing Market Index today; and Building Permits and Housing Starts tomorrow.

All of the significant US economic data - Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales - are out of the way. Considering how weak US economic data was over the course of the summer - the US Citi Economic Surprise Index was +43.1 on July 26 and is only -3.0 today - we're still very much of the mindset that the September FOMC meeting will result in a 'hawkish hold,' with markets pointed to December for the 25-bps rate move (as things currently stand).

Read more: Lack of Data Keeps Euro’s Focus on ECB Speeches, FOMC Rate Decision

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES