News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The 2022 forecast for Fed Fund futures has surged to its highest on record (fully pricing in two 25bp rate hikes) and you can see it in the 2-10 Treasury yield spread this past session:
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via
  • Wow, Australian 2-year yield jumps to highest since March 2020 in incredible surge (+62%) as #RBA withholds from defending the 2024 yield target today? (3Y up too) This is raising speculation the CB could be rethinking YCC Australian Dollar could not be bothered #AUD $AUDUSD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.56%, while traders in AUD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 74.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • The US Dollar might be stabilizing against ASEAN currencies as inflationary woes resurface ahead of GDP and PCE data. Amazon, Apple and Facebook earnings may also drive sentiment ahead. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • RBA Deputy Governor Debelle says a little more inflation is welcome - BBG
  • - Managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) reduced to 7 from 14 days effective November 14 - BBG
  • The Australian Dollar has had a period of strengthening against most currencies but there might be some challenges ahead. Will the Australia Dollar go higher? Find out here:
  • New Zealand's Hipkins says Christchurch at alert level 2 - BBG
  • 🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (23/OCT) Actual: ¥-604.5B Previous: ¥1225.4B
US Dollar Dogged by Sinking Fed Hike Expectations

US Dollar Dogged by Sinking Fed Hike Expectations

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- US Dollar collapsed yesterday after terrible US ISM Services report.

- Fed funds now pricing in a 24% chance of a rate hike in September.

- As market volatility is set to rise with summer ending, it's a good time to review risk management principles.

Federal Reserve officials can talk tough all they want, but a look at the fact clears up any confusion about what's going on in the US economy. Recent evidence points to the FOMC keeping rates on hold on September, desperate for US economic data to stabilize to get a ceremonial, face-saving rate hike in by December.

Where do we stand? The August ISM Services index plunged to its lowest level in over six years, falling at its fastest pace since November 2008 - right after Lehman Brothers collapsed. US jobs growth remains uneven, with wage growth frustratingly low and few signs of inflation pressure in either the CPI or PCE readings.

Chart 1: US Yield Curve (2s10s) - September 9, 2015 versus September 7, 2016

US Dollar Dogged by Sinking Fed Hike Expectations

Overall, the trend has been getting worse over the last few weeks. On July 26, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US was at +43.1; today it stands at -7.0. A market gauge of economic activity - the US yield curve slope, as measured by the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields (the 2s10s spread) - hints at rising recession risk. The 2s10s spread is now only 79.8-bps, down from 141.6-bps a year ago.

All of these facts have led market participants to believe that the odds of a Fed rate hike this month are fading: there's a 24% chance of a hike in September, down from 34% after the August NFP report.

See the above video for a technical review of the USDOLLAR Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD.

Read more: USD/JPY Tanks as ISM Misses by Most Since November 2008

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.