We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURMXN goes parabolic as global equity selling persists https://t.co/DTYPcp5Gwb
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT as he goes over London #FX & #CFD charts for the next week. Register here: https://t.co/CoMkMA0pdF https://t.co/qdeb1YFrFd
  • Sum up the global equity meltdown over the past week https://t.co/A3AQYmnaPd
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (FEB), Actual: 5.0% Expected: 5.0% Previous: 5.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Unemployment Change (000's) (FEB), Actual: -10k Expected: 5.0k Previous: -4.0k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • RT @TayTayLLP: Flows flows! Equities shed quite a lot for the wk. We had a $20.41bn outflow in stocks - still not at par w/ the Dec '19 rou…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.08%, while traders in USD/CAD are at opposite extremes with 69.71%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/bbDSK27AD4
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (FEB) due at 08:55 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 5.0% Previous: 5.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Unemployment Change (000's) (FEB) due at 08:55 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 5.0k Previous: -2.0k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Dollar Takes Aim Below 0.65 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/aud-usd/2020/02/28/AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-Aussie-Dollar-Takes-Aim-Below-0.65.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #AUDUSD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/p8OwNskYqh
Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs

Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs

2016-09-02 11:20:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Index rebounds at former symmetrical triangle resistance.

- USD/JPY primed to have an uninspiring day.

- As market volatility is set to rise with summer ending, it's a good time to review risk management principles.

The key issue surrounding today's August US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market is strong enough to justify a Fed rate hike in September. Current expectations for today's data are modest, with the Unemployment Rate expected to edge slightly lower to 4.8%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +180K. See the DailyFX economic calendar for today for the rest of the data previews.

Another modest print may prove to be better for the US Dollar rather than for risky assets (higher yielding currencies, equities, and high yield debt): a signs that the US labor market is still chugging along (albeit at a moderated pace as 'full employment' is reached') means the Fed will be more likely to hike. Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FRB of San Francisco President John Williams have both said that breakeven jobs growth is only around +100K per month, for what it's worth.

After Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium last Friday, it seems that markets are in agreement with the notion that the Fed will hike at least once this year: but there is only one rate hike being priced in, due in December (table 1 below).

Table 1: Fed Funds Futures Contract Implied Probabilities: September 2, 2016

Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs

A stronger NFP print (>+200K) can help bring forward rate expectations, which should help the USDOLLAR Index establish itself back above the key 12000/05 area. A weaker or middling report will do little to convince markets that a hike is coming this month (and unlikely to be in November, when the Fed doesn't release its updated SEP). The US Dollar just needs another 'Goldilocks' report (+150-199K) to convince market participants that a September hike is more likely than currently anticipated.

See the above video for a technical review of the USDOLLAR Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD.

Read more: GBP in the Driver’s Seat Today, Giving USDOLLAR Pause Pre-NFPs

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.