News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.81%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/nFlMXsEQor
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/p7l6voNLTR
  • #DJIA futures eyeing a retest of the February record-high (29595.3) after breaking above Falling Wedge resistance A daily close above the January low (28130.2) could signal the resumption of the primary uptrend extending from the March doldrums $DJI #DowJones #WallStreet https://t.co/DKmECFfpGK https://t.co/IBuArQrIJQ
  • @DailyFXTeam Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.32%) S&P 500 (+0.35%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.37%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD and $EURUSD drifting from session-highs as the haven-associated $JPY attempts to claw back lost ground. #SP500 futures, #Gold and #crudeoil all moving higher while the #ASX200 struggles to penetrate key resistance at 6,000 https://t.co/07OdgCzeZD
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/wi1qabrtHJ https://t.co/yUfAnqiYEs
  • Dow Jones climbed a second day on fiscal stimulus hopes. All 9 Dow sectors were up. Traders face a quiet calendar day, with the 1st presidential debate closely eyed. The live TV debate will be on air from 9:00 to 10:30am Singapore time on Wednesday. https://t.co/vyVHRqDCMo
  • According to John Hopkins University, Coronavirus deaths globally have surpassed 1 million people
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/7meK4cF0U9
  • ❗Heads up for #Rupee $USDINR traders! The #RBI monetary policy announcement originally set for October 1 is going to be rescheduled at a later date, tbd, Will update once time is known - https://t.co/qVnd9BAnSl
Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs

Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs

2016-09-02 11:20:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Index rebounds at former symmetrical triangle resistance.

- USD/JPY primed to have an uninspiring day.

- As market volatility is set to rise with summer ending, it's a good time to review risk management principles.

The key issue surrounding today's August US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market is strong enough to justify a Fed rate hike in September. Current expectations for today's data are modest, with the Unemployment Rate expected to edge slightly lower to 4.8%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +180K. See the DailyFX economic calendar for today for the rest of the data previews.

Another modest print may prove to be better for the US Dollar rather than for risky assets (higher yielding currencies, equities, and high yield debt): a signs that the US labor market is still chugging along (albeit at a moderated pace as 'full employment' is reached') means the Fed will be more likely to hike. Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FRB of San Francisco President John Williams have both said that breakeven jobs growth is only around +100K per month, for what it's worth.

After Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium last Friday, it seems that markets are in agreement with the notion that the Fed will hike at least once this year: but there is only one rate hike being priced in, due in December (table 1 below).

Table 1: Fed Funds Futures Contract Implied Probabilities: September 2, 2016

Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs

A stronger NFP print (>+200K) can help bring forward rate expectations, which should help the USDOLLAR Index establish itself back above the key 12000/05 area. A weaker or middling report will do little to convince markets that a hike is coming this month (and unlikely to be in November, when the Fed doesn't release its updated SEP). The US Dollar just needs another 'Goldilocks' report (+150-199K) to convince market participants that a September hike is more likely than currently anticipated.

See the above video for a technical review of the USDOLLAR Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD.

Read more: GBP in the Driver’s Seat Today, Giving USDOLLAR Pause Pre-NFPs

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES