US Dollar Looks to Shake Off Low Vol with Yellen Speech Today
- Fed Chair Yellen speaks in Jackson Hole at 14:00 GMT.
- USDOLLAR technical structure remains bearish ahead of data, speech.
- August is typically a bad month for risk and a good month for the US Dollar - see the August forex seasonality report.
It was another exhilarating 24-hours in FX markets, with the USDOLLAR Index exactly unchanged since we last spoke yesterday morning. That's not a surprise, really: it's still the end of August, after all; and Fed Chair Janet Yellen has still yet to give her much anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
As discussed yesterday, today's speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium may prove to be a disappointment for US Dollar bulls. The theme of the conference is "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future," inherently suggesting that the focus will be on the longer-run impacts of central bank action.
General consensus on the street is that, while Fed Chair Yellen won't outright dismiss the potential for a rate hike in the coming months - indeed perhaps even keeping the door open for a move in September - recent shifts in inflation expectations probably means the Fed views the necessity for significantly higher rates reduced. Faced with a situation where a rate hike may be signaled in the near-term, but the cyclical peak in this rate cycle will probably be even lower than previously anticipated, the US Dollar may find itself spinning on its head today.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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