News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here:
  • Coming up at half past the hour... my free webinar on market sentiment. Do join me if you can. You can sign up here: #sentiment
  • 💶 Inflation Rate MoM Flash (FEB) Actual: 0.2% Previous: 0.2%
  • 💶 Inflation Rate YoY Flash (FEB) Actual: 0.9% Expected: 0.9% Previous: 0.9%
  • 💶 Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (FEB) Actual: 1.1% Expected: 1.1% Previous: 1.4%
  • Italy will likely seek more stimulus as the outlook for coronavirus worsens $EUR
  • Heads Up:💶 Inflation Rate MoM Flash (FEB) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.2%
  • Heads Up:💶 Inflation Rate YoY Flash (FEB) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.9% Previous: 0.9%
  • Heads Up:💶 Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (FEB) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.1% Previous: 1.4%
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
USDOLLAR Index Yo-Yos; Aussie and Kiwi Break Conventional Wisdom

USDOLLAR Index Yo-Yos; Aussie and Kiwi Break Conventional Wisdom

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The USDOLLAR Index has been ebbing and flowing all week.

- JPY-crosses remain under key trendlines; CAD data has been disappointing, and Crude Oil's technical damage lingers.

- August is typically a bad month for risk and a good month for the US Dollar - see the August forex seasonality report.

Two rate cuts in two weeks from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and in both cases, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars rallied. This seems counter-intuitive; yet it makes perfect sense. The beauty of contemporary integrated, global markets is that investors are adept at discounting expectations of the future. In other words, it mattered more to the market that the RBA and the RBNZ didn't necessarily promise future dovish action than the fact that cuts were actually made.

Or, in a few other words, expectations matter more than reality. I refer to this as the "Dodgeball" effect, named after the comedy starring Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. There's a line early in the movie where Vince Vaughn's character alludes to the secret to his happiness: "I find if you keep your expectations low, you're never disappointed." This is, in effect, what went wrong for Aussie and Kiwi bears around the anticipated RBA and RBNZ rate cuts the past two weeks: dovish expectations were too high, and therefore disapointment for the bears was all but guaranteed.

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: USDOLLAR Falls Back after Bearish Key Reversal Yesterday

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.