News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • It took 108 days for Dogecoin ($DOGEUSD) to advance approximately 9000% (to April 19) and only 4 days to reverse approximately 60% of the gains to today's intraday low https://t.co/YCAp8gJAcK
  • $USDJPY has taken out the 38.2% Fib of the 2021 range and in the process is cementing the 10th consecutive daily decline - what will be the longest consistent slide since August 2011 https://t.co/gJPqiQGX2G
  • $EURUSD with a clean bounce off of that support zone around prior resistance, getting closer to taking out the high https://t.co/RDP4frvCnN https://t.co/sybz1CEqQu
  • Russia proposes to discuss Donbas truce by April 27th.
  • Italy sees EU Funds boosting GDP by around 3.6% in 2026. Draghi: Sees 38% of EU funds for green projects, 25% for digital projects. #EU $EUR
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.72%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 67.54%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oDXMDSlKRT
  • Positive Retail sales and PMI releases. GBP/USD may nudge higher ahead of US data releases.Get your $GBP market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/XJntXbysHN https://t.co/vRE9KHH7aL
  • $USD back down, that 91.40 spot caught a second hit of resistance yday afternoon. $DXY now testing through the 91 handle https://t.co/6afTwowThc https://t.co/HwVTJ3lWZh
  • The US Dollar has slipped lower again today, falling to its lowest point since early Tuesday. After testing 91.40 yesterday for the second time this week, the $DXY headed lower, currently trading back below the 91.00 level. $USD https://t.co/92FMTXo42U
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.41% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.41% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.33% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.22% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6A6MTdrLqz
Quiet Calendar has US Dollar Focused on Fed Rate Expectations

Quiet Calendar has US Dollar Focused on Fed Rate Expectations

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Fed funds now pricing in September 2017 for first hike, up from January 2018 last Tuesday.

- USDOLLAR Index has reclaimed half of its losses from the Q2'16 GDP report as rate expectations have climbed.

- August is typically a bad month for risk and a good month for the US Dollar - see the August forex seasonality report.

It's been quite a volatile past few weeks for the US Dollar (among others), but volatility in the near-term may cool off. The simple truth is, it's August, and it's an Olympics year; exogenous conditions aren't exactly cultivating an environment in which participants would want to be actively engaged in the market.

Accordingly, with that backdrop in place, the quiet economic calendar among G7 economies this week does no favors for traders looking for volatility. Similarly, given that it is the summer, traders may be overstimulated after numerous policy shifts from various central banks and governments the past few weeks - the BOJ and the MOF, the BOE, the RBA, and the Fed.

Absent incoming economic data that could start to shape forthcoming monetary policies - of which there is very little on the calendar in the week ahead - traders really only have one thing to pay attention to: Fed rate hike expectations. As the USDOLLAR Index has clawed back around half of its losses since the Q2'16 US GDP report, so too have rate expectations climbed, with markets now pricing in September 2017 after the July US NFP report, up from December 2017, for the Fed's first rate hike. Pre-Q2'16 US GDP, June 2017 was the favored month.

In a sense, half of the rate expectations have been repriced as well. A heuristic has revealed itself: in absence of US economic data, traders should simply watch when Fed funds futures contracts are implying the first rate hike will come.

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD Ebbs and Flows, but Not Due to Euro Influences

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES