0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The anti-risk Japanese #Yen may rise versus currencies like the $AUD and $NZD on US-China tensions and fiscal stimulus woes which sank the Nasdaq 100 at the end of last week. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/Kw0fYCHEcw https://t.co/jiQBPpzat3
  • The #Dollar is down than 3% year-to-date with the index responding to trend support at multi-year lows. Here are the levels that matter on the $DXY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/MVnF5VDoeN https://t.co/TP2k8u9sXN
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/ioGWvplvt7
  • Based on how US-China tensions and fiscal talks ended this past week, is the Japanese #Yen readying to push higher ahead? Check out the latest #JPY fundamental outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2020/08/10/Yen-May-Rise-as-Nasdaq-100-Falls-on-US-China-Tensions-Fiscal-Woes.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/2Km23bVAy2
  • Tech leading the S&P 500 towards record highs, however, China risks rise. FTSE 100 hovers in a lower range. Get your #equities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IJAABNhxjs https://t.co/ZZ6njsuf5O
  • We are heading into the peak of summer yet there are some unexpected trends in key plays. Will complacency or fundamental instability win out? My weekend video: '#Dollar, S&P 500, #Gold - The Potential for Trend, Reversal or Congestion' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/08/Dollar-SP-500-Gold---The-Potential-for-Trend-Reversal-or-Congestion-.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/7KoypvTwcL
  • What are some trading mistakes @nickcawley1 made during his career and what did he learn from them? Find out: https://t.co/40C8Sg5fM6
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:https://t.co/sR7HqpK8BI https://t.co/GZXAbZxL38
  • The Australian Dollar could be on the verge of a major breakout against the US #Dollar as $AUDUSD rates eye a close above pivotal chart resistance. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/1y4serFW7h https://t.co/OtqppN7fcp
  • Multiple time frame analysis follows a top down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. Learn how to incorporate multiple time frame analysis here: https://t.co/HnzQcAXWLU https://t.co/A517hC0JAG
Quiet Calendar has US Dollar Focused on Fed Rate Expectations

Quiet Calendar has US Dollar Focused on Fed Rate Expectations

2016-08-08 12:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Fed funds now pricing in September 2017 for first hike, up from January 2018 last Tuesday.

- USDOLLAR Index has reclaimed half of its losses from the Q2'16 GDP report as rate expectations have climbed.

- August is typically a bad month for risk and a good month for the US Dollar - see the August forex seasonality report.

It's been quite a volatile past few weeks for the US Dollar (among others), but volatility in the near-term may cool off. The simple truth is, it's August, and it's an Olympics year; exogenous conditions aren't exactly cultivating an environment in which participants would want to be actively engaged in the market.

Accordingly, with that backdrop in place, the quiet economic calendar among G7 economies this week does no favors for traders looking for volatility. Similarly, given that it is the summer, traders may be overstimulated after numerous policy shifts from various central banks and governments the past few weeks - the BOJ and the MOF, the BOE, the RBA, and the Fed.

Absent incoming economic data that could start to shape forthcoming monetary policies - of which there is very little on the calendar in the week ahead - traders really only have one thing to pay attention to: Fed rate hike expectations. As the USDOLLAR Index has clawed back around half of its losses since the Q2'16 US GDP report, so too have rate expectations climbed, with markets now pricing in September 2017 after the July US NFP report, up from December 2017, for the Fed's first rate hike. Pre-Q2'16 US GDP, June 2017 was the favored month.

In a sense, half of the rate expectations have been repriced as well. A heuristic has revealed itself: in absence of US economic data, traders should simply watch when Fed funds futures contracts are implying the first rate hike will come.

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD Ebbs and Flows, but Not Due to Euro Influences

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.