News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/USD Head and Shoulders top still in play - #AUDUSD chart
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here:
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Euro Forecast: EUR/USD May Struggle if Dovish ECB Talks Numb Data Reactions #Euro $EURUSD #ECB
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.28% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.21% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.72% Gold: 1.21% Oil - US Crude: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via
  • Silver leading precious metals higher on Monday, trading back above $28/oz $XAGUSD
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.10%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 74.63%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • A big day for $Gold Gold spent > than nine months in this bearish channel, building as a bull flag. At the time: - Bitcoin was below $12k - Ethereum was below $400 - Doge was worth about 1/3rd of 1 cent The only true constant is change
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (MAR) Actual: $146.4B Previous: $73.7B
Preview for July FOMC Meeting and Outlook for US Dollar

Preview for July FOMC Meeting and Outlook for US Dollar

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Fed funds only pricing in a 12% chance of a hike today; June 2017 most likely period for first hike.

- USDOLLAR Index retaining upside bias despite worst Durable Goods Orders in two years.

- FX volatility set to remain high - it's the right time to review risk management principles to protect your capital.

A few months ago, July was a sure thing; now, it will merely be a milestone on Federal Reserve's long journey to rate normalization. The Federal Reserve will keep its main rate on hold at 0.25-0.50%, citing uneven US economic data and uncertainty in global financial markets (which, admittedly, while calmer now, still have to deal with the looming specter of Brexit).

Thus, while an overall neutral tone is expected in the policy statement, the key for the US Dollar today, however, is to what degree of confidence the FOMC has in the US economy, or simply, 'how quickly does the Fed think it will be able to raise rates next?' Right now, market aren't confident a hike is coming this year:

Table 1: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Through December 2017

Please add a description for the image.

As a reminder, the Fed's never raised rates unless the market has been pricing in the chance of a hike in excess of 60%; in December 2015, Fed funds were pricing in a 66% chacne. In reality, being aware of this confidence threshold, rate expectations are muted through the end of this year. Yet this in turn represents an opportunity for the US Dollar: if the Fed does anything that suggests it will raise rates this year, then there is a rate differential gap that needs to be closed. Further advancement by market pricing should help serve as a bullish catalyst for the US Dollar.

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Reversals Gather Pace as Scope for Japanese Stimulus Fades

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.