AUD/USD, EUR/USD Ride Daily 8-EMAs Ahead of GDP, Yellen
- Incoming data could help dispel concerns about US growth in 2016.
- Higher volatility in FX markets should have implications for your trading strategies.
The USDOLLAR Index continues to struggle with the fact that June rate hike expectations have stalled in their upward climb, with the Fed funds futures contract now pricing in a 28% chance of a hike in June. The lack of improvement in front month pricing has been holding back the buck, even as rate expectations for July and September continue to be dragged forward.
However, the lack of improvement in pricing odds is an affront to recent economic data momentum: the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US just hit its highest level (-20.4) in over a month (-21.9 on April 18); and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q2'16 growth forecast has improved to +2.9% SAAR. Any improvement in the headline Q1'16 US GDP reading released today reduces pressure on forthcoming quarters to produce above-trend growth in order to achieve the Fed's +2.2% end of year growth rate.
Even though Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking today (and supposedly on interest rates in a discussion with Harvard professor Greg Mankiw), she has a major policy speech planned for June 6, and as such, it seems unlikely that she would pre-announce any significant changes to her outlook. With traders winding down for a three day weekend in the US and the UK, the reduced liquidity environment offers the potential for an exacerbated response around today's data and commentary.
If you haven't yet, read the Q2'16 Euro Forecast, "EUR/USD Stuck in No-Man’s Land Headed into Q2’16; Don’t Discount ’Brexit’," as well as the rest of all of DailyFX's Q2'16 quarterly forecasts.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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