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  • Fed's Evans: - Doesn't see a great risk of inflation rising too quickly - Could see inflation temporarily above 2% - Higher inflation that delivers 2% on average is ok - It would be extraordinary for inflation to get up to 3%, wouldn't be a real problem even if it does #Fed $USD
  • USD/CAD struggles to retain the advance from the February low (1.2468) as Federal Reserve officials show little interest in adjusting the path for monetary policy. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Fed's Evans: - Optimistic about recovery - Expects unemployment to be closer to 5% by end of 2021 #Fed $USD
  • Mid-Week Market Check Up- $USD, $EURUSD, $USDCAD, #Gold, #Silver, $SPX & #Bitcoin and More! (Webinar Archive)-
  • Fed's Evans: - 2021 should deliver a strong economic rebound - Fiscal support will be very helpful - There is still quite a gap in employment - Headline unemployment rate masks lots of people still on sidelines #Fed $USD
  • EU says UK is in "clear departure" from "constructive approach" - BBG.
  • EU says UK is violating its obligations under N.I. protocol. $EUR $GBP
  • The US Dollar remains strong but is trading lower than yesterday's multi-week highs. The $DXY tested the 91.00 level today ahead of the ISM Services print but traded lower after the print noted a slowing of activity in February. $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.01%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Evans Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min)
Positive News Flow Past 24-hours Boosts Risk, Holds Back US Dollar

Positive News Flow Past 24-hours Boosts Risk, Holds Back US Dollar

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- BOE Governor Carney instilled confidence in the GBP yesterday.

- Strong US housing data and the Greek aid news boost risk mood.

- Higher volatility in FX markets should have implications for your trading strategies.

Good news from across developed economies is proving to be a shot in the arm for higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets the past 24-hours. In turn, even as USD/JPY has stayed elevated, the reach for yield has pushed the US Dollar to the sidelines, part

The positive news cycle kicked off yesterday morning when Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made clear the extent of damage a Brexit would do to the UK economy. With voters looking less likely to opt out of the EU on June 23, the risk of another full blown existential crisis for the Euro-Zone seems less likely.

Then, yesterday's April US New Home Sales report was the best in eight years, which in turn sent US equities higher: the strengthening housing market should bode well for consumption trends (we'll look for evidence in upcoming Durable Goods Orders reports).

Capping off the good news the past 24-hours was the preliminary agreement in the Greece-IMF bailout tranche deal, which staves off another chapter in the crisis - until at least after the German federal elections. Surely, this is another 'kick the can down the road' type of deal with no real specifics, but markets feel it's better than the alternative: no deal at all.

It's been a pretty good 24-hours for risk-appetite, no doubt. But there's still a good deal of wood to chop today before the forrest is cleared: three Fed speakers are due up. The combination of improving market sentiment alongside rising Q2'16 US growth expectations leaves open the door for an accelerated rate of hawkish commentary from Fed officials over the coming weeks.

I can't help but feel - Is this déjà vu? US economic data improves > US equities rally > Fed talks up possibility of rate hike > US Dollar rallies > US economic data disappoints > US equities fall > Fed talks down possibility of rate hike > US Dollar falls > US economic data improves... wash, rinse, repeat.

See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: USDOLLAR Index Tempered as GBP/USD Gains on BOE Brexit Commentary

If you haven't yet, read the Q2'16 Euro Forecast, "EUR/USD Stuck in No-Man’s Land Headed into Q2’16; Don’t Discount ’Brexit’," as well as the rest of all of DailyFX's Q2'16 quarterly forecasts.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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