Talking Points:
- Central bank easing expectations driving market sentiment.
- BOJ meeting on April 28 will almost certainly be market moving.
- If you're on the wrong side of a crowded position, leverage can be more harmful than helpful.
Markets are taking a breather at what's clearly an important psychological pit stop along the continuum of central bank easing. Several financial instruments that we cover, including the JPY-crosses, the USDOLLAR Index, precious metals, and equity index CFDs, are all suggesting that we've arrived at a checkpoint to confirm that the next leg of central bank support is in the pipeline. This, of course, is the big picture to keep an eye on over the next week.
We'll get a glimpse through this window next week when the Bank of Japan meets for their April 28 meeting. Ahead of time, with Japanese equities rallying and the Yen falling broadly, it would appear that markets are looking for the BOJ to take the baton next (after the Fed backtracked on its normalization stance).
In context of where several key instruments stand - AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY come to mind in FX, while the Nikkei 225's inverse head & shoulders and the S&P 500's nine-month flag come to mind in equities - the timing is too convenient to be a coincidence. Markets are collectively holding their breath, waiting for "all clear."
As someone preparing to step away from the markets for a few days - I'll be in San Francisco and Napa Valley from April 23 to April 29 - I'm focusing on relatively longer-term chart setups for when I return to the desk. Accordingly, see the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, GBP/JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the US S&P500, the Japanese Nikkei 225, and the USDOLLAR Index.
Read more: Silver-Gold Relationship Evolving in a Bad Way for US Dollar
If you haven't yet, read the Q2'16 Euro Forecast, "EUR/USD Stuck in No-Man’s Land Headed into Q2’16; Don’t Discount ’Brexit’," as well as the rest of all of DailyFX's Q2'16 quarterly forecasts.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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