News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇷🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) Actual: 51.5 Previous: 50.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 50.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/XuRCWHWsEV
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.74%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 64.08%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/0MjvT6Ao40
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.55% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.55% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.39% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.09% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/reMp23qieo
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.05% US 500: 0.83% Germany 30: 0.78% France 40: 0.78% Wall Street: 0.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/xD81ljxO7y
  • 🇮🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) Actual: 57.5 Expected: 57.5 Previous: 57.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Had the pleasure of jumping on The Trade today on @ausbiztv to go over what long-term price action can tell us about the future trajectory of #copper, $AUDUSD and the $DXY Big thanks to @KaraOrdway for having me on! https://t.co/awjKgmOTwS
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 57.5 Previous: 57.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • 🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) Actual: 1.38% Expected: 1.38% Previous: 1.55% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
USDOLLAR Eyes Major Support Ahead of ADP, ISM Services

USDOLLAR Eyes Major Support Ahead of ADP, ISM Services

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/JPY, AUD/USD pivot at former support turned resistance.

- EUR-crosses seek stability; important few days for EUR/GBP.

- Follow trader sentiment in USD/CAD with live DailyFX SSI updates.

US economic data has been rocky of late, and traders are starting to chip away at the USDOLLAR Index as fears of a deeper slowdown take shape. Economic data momentum (via the Citi Economic Surprise Index) is off to its weakest start to the year since 2009, which of course was at the height of the global financial crisis.

The signs are alarming and gave the Fed good reason to soften its tone last week. We are just coming off of some of the slowest US retail sales growth in the post-GFC era, and industrial production just suffered its worst contraction in a non-recession year since 1952. The Fed's commentary embodied these concerns, saying in their policy statement that "labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year." Headline jobs growth has remained firm, but recent US Initial Jobless Claims - typically seen as a leading indicator for the labor market - have started to creep higher. The US economy is on shakier footing than most are willing to admit.

Rates markets are already pricing out the possibility of a hike in March, with only a mere 12% chance of a 25-bps hike being priced in, according to the Fed funds futures contract. How alarmed are markets? The first hike is now being priced in for December 2016:

Table 1: Probability of Rate Hikes across Upcoming Fed Meetings

fed rate hike probabilities

For today, the January US ADP Employment Change report and the January US ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing index should give fairly strong hints about what we should expect from this Friday's January US Nonfarm Payrolls report. There is a chance that there may be a weather distortion in construction, housing, and jobs data between December and January: December produced the warmest weather on record in the US; whereas January saw the East Coast endure one of the worst blizzards ever (NYC missed its all-time snowfall total by <0.2"). It's possible that the strong December figures 'borrowed' growth from January; which may exacerbate the recent slide in US economic data.

Read more: Risk FX Not in the Clear Yet, Particularly the Australian Dollar

We're over one-third through the quarter - see how the DailyFX Research Q1'16 forecasts are holding up.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES