News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here:
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Is investing in your favorite brand or buying its products the better financial move? Read the article for a breakdown.
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • BTC/USD treading water sideways, 28600 the big level to watch. ETH/USD working on forming a nice-looking descending wedge. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias. Get your weekly gold technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges. Get your weekly GBP forecast from @HathornSabin here:
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via
Risk FX Hit Again as Global Stocks Enter Bear Market Territory

Risk FX Hit Again as Global Stocks Enter Bear Market Territory

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD, NZD/USD pressing breakout levels lower.

- USD/CAD volatility nearly guaranteed thanks to market sentiment.

- Follow retail crowd sentiment with live SSI charts.

We're not yet three weeks into the New Year, and already, warning bells are going off about the global economy. The latest siren: the global equity market rout has taken on a new identity with losses of -20% or more piling up over the past 52-weeks. The German DAX 30, the UK FTSE 100, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 - among others - have all entered bear market territory (the US S&P 500 is only off about -12% from last year's highs, so not there yet).

One of the most important things to watch going forward will be the evolution of Fed commentary in context of recent global financial markets' collective anxiety. With the US labor market holding firm and nascent signs of incoming inflation data turning higher (the next US CPI report is today at 13:30 GMT), the Fed has looked headstrong in its effort to normalize policy.

As the Fed has beaten the drum of raising rates around four times this year (bringing the benchmark interest rate to 1.50%), market participants have become increasingly pessimistic on that scenario actually playing out. Indeed, it seems traders are now looking for the Fed to pull back its rate expectations, with only one rate cut priced in (for September) per the Fed funds futures contract:

Table 2: Probability of Rate Hikes across Upcoming Fed Meetings

Fed rate hike probabilities - January 2016

This represents a major problem for the US Dollar, although not necessarily in the short-term as the greenback enjoys safe haven status during the latest waves of negativity. However, there will be a time in the future when the market and the Fed need to come to terms over their disagreement; it looks like the Fed will be the first to move. For now, this lack of policy clarity is doing anything but helping market sentiment.

Aside from the bevy of US economic data coming up shortly, the first of two central bank events on the calendar this week is due up at 15:00 GMT, when the Bank of Canada meets for the first time this year. It looks like the meeting and policy statement could spur a big move in the Canadian Dollar - no matter what the central bank does.

Ahead of the meeting, OIS are discounting a 57% chance of a 25-bps cut, while the consensus forecast by Bloomberg News shows that economists are expecting rates to remain on hold. Half the market sees a cut while the other half sees inaction; collectively, a large portion of market participants are wrong on the Bank of Canada decision, even before it occurs, which means there will likely be a large move on the decision, one way or the other as positioning adjustments ensue.

See the above video for technical considerations in the USDOLLAR Index, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, and GBP/JPY.

Read more: Euro Grind Continues as Prospect for ECB Action Slowly Increases

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.