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Pivotal Day for USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Technicals after Japanese GDP

Pivotal Day for USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Technicals after Japanese GDP

2015-11-16 12:42:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/JPY could post an outside engulfing/bullish key reversal bar above ¥122.99.

- EUR/JPY piercing candle coincides with shift in EZ CPI data, Japanese GDP.

- See the November forex seasonality report that forecasts US Dollar strength.

While the release of the Q3'15 Japanese GDP report doesn't guarantee that the Bank of Japan will now act, it at least has markets thinking forward to that next stimulus announcement. The Japanese Yen is the worst performing currency headed into the latter half of the day in Europe and the start of North American trading as the latest growth data from Japan may help clarify what's been an opaque policy stance by the BoJ.

It's important to note, however, whereas other central banks take economic data at face value and act on it, the BoJ is not alone in the stimulus area and therefore takes longer to process data. Unlike the Fed, the BoE, and the ECB, which all stand alone - stimulative fiscal policy is absent in these advanced economies - the BoJ has 'Abenomics' by its side to support the end of the 'Lost Two Decades' (this is not to say that Japanese policies have been effective).

Due to the dual nature of policy in Japan, traders have thus far been unwilling to commit to a direction in the JPY-crosses as there haven't been clear signs from either the Japanese government or the BoJ as to what might happen next; data has been middling, and so too has been the policy response. But if the market reaction to the Q3'15 Japanese GDP release holds true, it would appear that traders are lining up for more BoJ stimulus: several of the major JPY-crosses are on the cusp of posting bullish reversal candlestick patterns on their daily charts now.

See the video above for a review of this morning's final October Euro-Zone CPI report and Q3'15 Japanese GDP data, as well as technical considerations in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and AUD/USD.

Read more: EUR/USD Direction Next Few Days Contingent on EZ CPI, ECB Speeches

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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