Make or Break Day for the USDOLLAR Index?
- EUR/USD faces retest of daily 8-EMA - hasn't closed above since October 22.
- USDOLLAR hasn't seen two closes below its daily 8-EMA since October 19-20.
- See the November forex seasonality report that forecasts US Dollar strength.
If there were a tandem of data releases - outside of the NFP data dump - that could carry significant weight for the US Dollar, it would be today's retail sales and consumer confidence releases. Both reports offer insight into the heart and soul - and wallet - of the American consumer; which is important, given that consumption accounts for north of 70% of US GDP.
Accordingly, with the USDOLLAR Index at a critical crossroads - it is threatening to put in two consecutive closes below its daily 8-EMA for the first time since October 19-20 - this data serves as an opportunity to reaffirm the market's belief that the Federal Reserve has enough positive data to hike rates next month.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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