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AUD/USD to Face Larger Rebound on Strong Australia Employment Report

AUD/USD to Face Larger Rebound on Strong Australia Employment Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Australia Employment to Increase for Seventh Time in Last 10-Months.

- Jobless Rate to Hold Steady at Annualized 6.2 for Third Straight Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

A 15.0K rebound in Australia Employment may spark a larger rebound in AUD/USD as signs of a stronger recovery provide the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with greater flexibility to carry its current policy into 2016.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD Australia Employment

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though RBA Governor Glenn Stevens keeps the door open to implement lower borrowing-costs, a further improvement in the labor market may encourage the central bank to stick to its current wait-and-see approach at the December 1 interest rate decision as the board sees a sustainable recovery ahead.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Home Loans (MoM) (SEP)



Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)



Building Approvals (MoM) (SEP)



The pickup in private-sector consumption accompanied by the ongoing expansion in building activity may push Australian firms to increase their labor force, and a marked rebound in job growth may heighten the appeal of the aussie as it boosts interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Investment Lending (SEP)



NAB Business Confidence (OCT)



Conference Board Leading Index (MoM) (AUG)



However, the weakening outlook for global growth paired with waning business confidence may drag on employment, and a dismal jobs report may put increased pressure on the RBA to implement additional rate-cuts in an effort to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: Employment Rebounds 15.0K or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the report for a potential long AUD/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a long aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish AUD Trade: Australia Labor Employment Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD stands at risk of giving back the rebound from back in September (0.6906) as the pair remains stuck in a downward trending channel, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 15, but the ratio appears to be approaching recent extremes as it climbs to +2.70, with 73% of traders long.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7380 (50% retracement) to 0.7390 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.6830 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6860 (61.8% expansion)

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Impact that Australia Employment Change has had on AUD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP 2015

10/15/2015 00:30 GMT





September 2015Australia Employment Change


Australia unexpectedly shed 5.1K jobs in September following a revised 18.1K expansion the month prior. Nevertheless, the unemployment held steady at an annualized rate of 6.2% during the same period, while the participation fell to 64.9% from 65.0% as discouraged workers left the labor force. A further deterioration in the labor market may put increased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement lower borrowing-costs, but its seems as though Governor Glenn Stevens will largely endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout 2015 as the rate-cuts from earlier this year continue to work through the real economy. The bearish reaction in the Australian dollar was short-lived, with AUD/USD bouncing back ahead of the 0.7300 handle to close the Asian/Pacific session at 0.7330.

Read More:

AUD/JPY Flirting with Pivotal Support

AUD/USD Near Term Downtrend While Below .7223

Price & Time: USD/MXN: Still In Search Of Directional Clarity

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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