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Preview for FOMC Meeting and Trade Setups in USD-pairs

Preview for FOMC Meeting and Trade Setups in USD-pairs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD eyes rebound to former support region, seven-month TL.

- GBP/USD losing October uptrend pre-FOMC.

- See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness.

The Federal Reserve meets today in what should be nothing more than a pit stop meeting, a mere toll booth on the way to the ultimate destination: the December policy meeting. True, there is only a ~30% chance of a Fed rate hike in December (per the Fed funds futures contracts), but Fed officials have insisted for months - including after the September rate hold - that a rate hike was foreseen in 2015.

Without a press conference or official changes to the Staff Economic Projections (and dot plot likewise), today's meeting is more likely than not going to be a quieter one, at least by FOMC standards. The policy statement will carry a bit more weight, and even then, it's not like Fed officials are going to 'rock the boat' with a material shift in policy without being able to explain/justify/pontificate about the changes in their immediate aftermath. Instead, a focus on data dependency will be the core theme we're looking for.

Given the fact that rate expectations for the Federal Reserve have been pushed back to March 2016, at this point, anything that fails to ellicit a response from yields is insignificant; if rate expectations stay around March 2016 for the first rate move, then it's also likely that the US Dollar continues along its current trajectory - which may include the breakout of a bear flag in EUR/USD.

See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD Flag Break Hinges on US Data, FOMC Tomorrow

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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