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Weak US Retail Sales Data Sinks US Dollar, Again

Weak US Retail Sales Data Sinks US Dollar, Again

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD jumps into $1.1435/65 resistance zone.

- USDJPY losing triangle support, eyes ¥118.60.

- See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness.

Chalk up another bad report for the US economy. With US labor market data starting to slip after the worst Nonfarm Payrolls report of 2015, today's September US Advance Retail Sales report failed to provide any relief to the recently berated US Dollar.

Data had been weakening steadily over the past month, and since the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting, markets have gone from pricing in the front month as the most likely month for the rate hike to one now five-plus months away, in March 2016. If consumption trends are weakening - something that may be viewed as a confirmation of the weak NFPs - concerns about a more global slowdown may prevail. It's becoming more and more difficult to envision the Fed movnig on rates any time soon (though this was clear the day after the September FOMC meeting).

Here's the data that's driving the USDOLLAR Index down to fresh weekly lows:

- USD Advance Retail Sales (SEP): +0.1% versus +0.2% expected, from 0.0% (m/m).

- USD Retail Sales Less Autos (SEP): -0.3% versus -0.1% expected unch (m/m).

- USD Retail Sales Control Group (SEP): -0.1% versus +0.3% expected, from +0.2% (m/m).

See the above video for a fundamental overview of the USD-complex in the wake of another soft US data report, plus technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD, GBP/USD Moves Supported by Retail Positioning Shifts

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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