News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #NOK, #NZD and #AUD are expected to be the most volatile G10 currencies vs USD over the next week with implied volatilities of 15.48, 11.48 and 10.91, respectively.
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #webinar at 9:45 PM ET/1:45 AM GMT for live date coverage of the #RBNZ rate decision here: https://t.co/4dH1BgErD1 https://t.co/pEuAN46VS1
  • The US Dollar, British Pound, and Euro will all be closely watching key geopolitical developments in North America (Powell testimony), the UK (Brexit talks) and Europe (EU summit). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/q4AJW6PTCu https://t.co/aAhCrBCBtX
  • Gold and silver are at risk of extending their slide from monthly highs as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus and rising geopolitical tensions underpin USD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/sYF5pV9zrE https://t.co/04Czwv3PpW
  • #Nasdaq 100 Recovering? Biden-Trump #Election2020 Betting Spread Widens⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/09/22/Nasdaq-100-Recovering-Biden-Trump-Election-Betting-Spread-Widens.html
  • Join @ddubrovskyFX 's #webinar at 8:00 PM ET/00:00 PM GMT to find out what information you can gain from knowing what other traders are buying or selling. Register here: https://t.co/Bb3CTCTm44 https://t.co/QaZzPd0K6D
  • The US Dollar is struggling against ASEAN currencies despite weakness in the S&P 500. Capital remains flowing into emerging markets, keeping USD under pressure, could this change? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/nwhy3XhE74 https://t.co/7nvijaAruu
  • Retail CFD traders have poked their head back into net bullish territory - an uncommon territory - in their net positioning for the $DJIA (Wall Street). Skeptical of a breakdown it seems https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment?ref-author=Kicklighter&CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/g12EqBGkGh
  • The Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ ETF saw more than -$3.4 billion leave its coffers on Friday. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/NZWg2XrEuD https://t.co/S9uxEGzJjJ
  • The $QQQ ETF recently saw its largest outflow, followed by its largest inflow since October 2000 What does this mean for the Nasdaq? Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/22/Nasdaq-100-Forecast-Exodus-from-Tech-ETF-Has-Worrisome-Historical-Parallel.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9 https://t.co/bS0V5IsS6Z
Soft Data, Weak Seasonality Trends Undermining USD

Soft Data, Weak Seasonality Trends Undermining USD

2015-10-07 11:39:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUDUSD, NZDUSD rally higher, AUDUSD at top of triangle.

- Commodity bloc boosted as metals, energy prices rise.

- See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness.

The latest bout of USDOLLAR Index weakness is absent of the two most popular currency pairs in the world, EURUSD and USDJPY. Neither has moved much of recent, perhaps due to the upswing in investor sentiment as evidenced by the turn higher in global equity markets; the US Dollar's decline has thus been restrained by offsetting risk flows.

Where this is contradiction in EURUSD and USDJPY, there is only uniformity and clarity in the commodity currency bloc. The USDCAD meltdown continues amid surging oil prices (which mainly reflect burgeoning tensions in the Middle East and the onset of a 'Cold War 2.0'), while both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have enjoyed a rebound in agricultural and metallic commodity prices.

Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD may be in the early stages of bullish bottom formations. For NZDUSD, a double bottom between N$0.6230 and N$0.6450 may be underway, with a target of N$0.6670 (the late-August swing high comes in around N$0.6700). For AUDUSD, now that the downtrend from May has broken, we're giving respect to the symmetrical triangle that's formed since late-August; price now finds itself back in at the triangle resistance as well as former lows near A$0.7205/0.7235.

See the above video for a fundamental overview of the USD-complex, plus technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: October Forex Seasonality Foresees Disappointing US Dollar Performance

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES