USD/JPY's Triangular Coil Sets it Apart from Other USD-pairs
- See the September forex seasonality report.
We're halfway through the week, and to be frank, it's a boring week on the economic calendar. There are only two "high" importance events this week, and while neither has yet come to pass, it seems unlikely that traders are hanging their hats on these two data releases as make-or-break moments for either of the two economies/currencies, the United States/USD and Japan/JPY.
This environment, then, caters more to a technically-inclined crowd, whose capital allocation decisions are independent of event risk or central bank machinations. From this perspective, it's worth noting that while the broader USDOLLAR Index is making a well-respected effort at wiping out its post-FOMC losses while breaking its September downtrend, not all of the pairs are contributing equally. Whereas AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD have all fallen by -2% or more from their post-FOMC highs, USDJPY continues to meander around the ¥120.00 figure, stuck coiling in a triangle since the August 24 equity wipeout.
While the rest of the USD-complex may be moving in tandem, USDJPY seems more susceptible to changes in broader risk sentiment vis-a-vis the S&P500. We could very well find ourselves in an environment where the USD, JPY, and EUR are all outperformers as traders shift remove short EUR and short JPY hedges and reallocate capital to the low yielding bloc. Conversely, because the rest of the USDOLLAR Index is moving in tandem, it means that all USD-centric moves will be amplified, up or down.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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