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EUR-crosses Face Retest of Breakouts as Greece Faces Deadline

EUR-crosses Face Retest of Breakouts as Greece Faces Deadline

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD fails at retest of $1.1200 and daily 21-EMA.

- EURAUD, EURJPY fall back to uptrends from April low, triangles.

- See the June forex seasonality report.

The Greek debt negotiations may just beginning to impact charts, and not in a good way for the Euro. Several important EUR-crosses are starting to test recent bullish consolidation support levels (EURAUD, EURGBP, and EURJPY), while the most-well known pair (EURUSD) is starting to exhibit the tendencies of a more bearish market on short-term timeframes.

As the market grapples with the possibility of Greece missing its June 30 repayment to the IMF, and thereby potentially putting it in default (although there is some debate over whether or not being in arrears will really mean Greece is in default, as markets are likely to be concerned with the state of the Greek banking system, which should remain healthy enough with the European Central Bank providing the ELA backstop), traders may be certain of one thing: headlines will have a more meaningful impact on volatility and, therefore, price action, as the deadline nears.

Even with market participants hopeful for a deal, price action in the EUR-crosses tells us that the market is starting to shift its tone on the state of Greek debt negotiations; and anxiety around headlines could be running higher this afternoon as Euro-Zone ministers convey at an emergency summit in an attempt to find common ground between Greece and her creditors (supposed to begin at 07:00 EDT/11:00 GMT, but there is the possibility of a delay).

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, EURJPY, EURAUD, EURGBP, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD Triangles Breakdown as USD/JPY Eyes Breakout

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.