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USDOLLAR Index Bottom Looks Established by Now

USDOLLAR Index Bottom Looks Established by Now

2015-05-26 10:58:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDCAD, USDJPY continue to lead the way for USD-pairs.

- EURUSD in 'sell rallies' mode after break of March-May uptrend.

- See the May forex seasonality report.

The USDOLLAR Index has made considerable strides the past two weeks and by doing so, has positioned itself on the charts as having developed a potential significant bottom in the near-term. While the latest USDOLLAR Index rally was spurred on by an explosive move higher overnight in USDJPY, it's worth noting that EURUSD and GBPUSD both have started to settle in below their channel uptrends dating back to mid-April.

As it proved to be on the way down for the US Dollar, USDCAD, despite not being a component of the USDOLLAR Index, continues to carry clout as a leading indicator for USD-pairs. Today, USDCAD looks to retake its January-April sideways range, and a weekly close through C$1.2386 would be a most desirable outcome for bulls.

Rounding back to USDJPY, it seems as if the bullish potential there is just getting unlocked. USDJPY failed to find any downside during the bout of USD weakness, so it should not be surprising to see the greenback take advantage of the frail yen during a period of USD strength. Positioning in the futures market has evened out substantially, insofar as there are the fewest amount of speculators short Japanese Yen since Q4'12 (which is when USDJPY traded below ¥80.00, pre-Abenomics). Similarly, speculative long US Dollar positions have dropped for eight straight weeks. In other words: long USDJPY is no longer a crowded trade; and a rush of repositioning could dictate higher prices in the weeks ahead.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD Rally Checked by ECB Commentary, Better US Data

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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