News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Coming up at half past the hour. Do join me if you can, using the link below https://t.co/RAiCJNLuSC
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.18% FTSE 100: 0.49% France 40: 0.40% US 500: 0.22% Wall Street: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Jb7LZOruhP
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/3Wp3IOFbCl
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/XUUPRdY06p https://t.co/xPg6iYu5XF
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long USD/JPY since Mar 08 when USD/JPY traded near 103.93. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/svVkPPHfph
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/ZcSPE0xkvX
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/9:30 AM GMT for insight on London #FX and #CFD trading. Register here: https://t.co/AoM3UvLtcF https://t.co/zKfTmM2Lvn
  • Germany's IFO forecasts - Upgrades 2020 GDP outlook to -5.2% from -6.7% - Downgrades 2021 GDP outlook to 5.1% from 6.4%
  • BoE's Bailey says while negative rates is in the toolbox, this does not imply the BoE would use negative rates $GBP
  • BoE's Bailey says negative rates have been a mixed bag in other countries $GBP
Putting USD Correction into Perspective Post-GDP, Pre-NFPs

Putting USD Correction into Perspective Post-GDP, Pre-NFPs

2015-05-05 10:58:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- EURUSD trades down to former resistance turned support, daily 8-EMA.

- USDJPY breakout gathers pace - easiest path forward for USD.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, May 5, 2015.

May seasonality calls for US Dollar gains, but Friday's NFP release will be the ultimate determinant of the buck's direction. The lingering net-long US Dollar position held by speculators in the futures market alongside disappointing US economic data from Q1'15 leave the greenback in a vulnerable place, particularly if the April jobs report disappoints: the strength of the labor market was truly the engine of the US Dollar appreciation since last July (vis-a-vis rising interest rate expectations).

Accordingly, without a strong April Nonfarm Payrolls report, the view that the economic weakness see last quarter was more permanent and less transitory could be embraced, which would most likely lead to investors reducing Fed rate hike expectations further, and dampening the probability of the May seasonal rebound in the process.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and USDJPY.

Read more: May Forex Seasonality Foresees Dollar Rebound After April Selloff

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES