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USD Breakdown Accelerates - Will CPI Fuel the Fire?

USD Breakdown Accelerates - Will CPI Fuel the Fire?

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDCAD double top in play, eyes move towards C$1.1865/905.

- USDJPY slowest to accelerate as EUR is now the funding currency.

- See the April forex seasonality report.

The emerging technical breakdown draws focus to the March US Consumer Price Index release today, as more evidence of low inflation/disinflation could further stir worries over the state of the economy. In context of the large net-long position in the Dollar Index (DXY) (72.8K net-long contracts, just off the all-time high of 81.3K set the week ended March 10, 2015) and the large net-shot position in the Euro (215.3K net-short contracts, just off the all-time high of 226.6K set the week ended March 31, 2015), a disappointing CPI report could prove to be the death knell for the greenback. Forecasters are currently expecting the report to come in at +0.3% from +0.2% (m/m) and 0.0% unch (y/y) on the headline, and +0.2% unch (m/m) and +1.7% unch (y/y) on the core readings.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD.

Read more: Potential for Top in USDOLLAR After Triangle False Breakout

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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