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USD in Holding Pattern as Calendar Turns to April, Q2

USD in Holding Pattern as Calendar Turns to April, Q2

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD carving out 1.0710-1.0790/95 range on H4.

- USDJPY enters most bearish stretch of year per seasonality.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Wednesday, April 1.

The greenback had an outstanding Q1'15, but that means little going forward, especially this week amid the flip in the calendar, the market holiday on Friday, and US Nonfarm Payrolls. Liquidity should be a concern in the days ahead, as the confluence of NFPs falling on a market holiday is quite rare - it has only happened 11 times since 1980. Markets may be drying up, but outsized swings in price at the end of the week can't be dismissed either.

In the interim, our focus today is on the US ISM Manufacturing Index for March. Yesterday's Chicago PMI reading was quite chilly at 46.3 versus 51.8 expected, and it's difficult to argue that the strong US Dollar isn't having an impact on foreign demand for US goods. Considering that the Chicago PMI represents a major manufacturing region for the US, and that April is seasonally one of the worst months of the year for the US Dollar (April seasonality report out later today), a significant miss on today's March ISM Manufacturing report could easily square up the buck for weakness headed into NFPs.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, and USDJPY.

Read more: Next Leg Lower in EUR-crosses in Focus after Weaker CPI

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.