Never miss a story from Christopher Vecchio

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Christopher Vecchio

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points:

- EURUSD trapped between daily 21- and 34-EMAs, $1.0905-1.1040.

- USDJPY threatens losing uptrend from Jan-Feb swing lows.

- See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era.

Persistent selling across the USD-spectrum in the wake of the March FOMC meeting last Wednesday has brought the greenback squarely in line with perhaps its most significant mean reverting level over the past eight-months. The daily 34-EMA, which has defined the uptrend since last July and has held as support on numerous occasions in between, now faces a very real threat of losing its grip as the backbone of the US Dollar rally.

Perhaps most alarming for the US Dollar would be significant losses against the Japanese Yen, which has seasonally seen a weak end of March (stronger USDJPY as well as xxxJPY pairs) during the QE era. If the Yen were able to buck its weak seasonal tendency, it could bolster its profile for April, which coincidentally has been quite strong since 2009. This may in turn result in weaker US equity prices - USDJPY has traded side-by-side with US stocks since November 2012 - or decreasing interest rate differentials (as US yields fall and/or Japanese yields rise).

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the broader USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: Weakest CPI on Record Pushes GBP to Precipice of Breakdown

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form