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Trade Setups in EUR-crosses and Expectations for ECB Meeting

Trade Setups in EUR-crosses and Expectations for ECB Meeting

2015-03-05 11:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Momentum remains firmly lower in EURGBP, EURUSD.

- ECB checklist: Greece; modalities of QE; economic projections.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Thursday, March 5, 2015.

The ECB meeting today presents itself as both a placeholder and a weigh-station of sorts. As a placeholder, we already know that the ECB is moving forward with its QE program (the EAPP, Extended Asset Purchase Program) on March 15 (but perhaps as soon as March 9).

Considering the processes by which the €60 billion/month program will be conducted have been faintly revealed (with dismissal of the notion that the ECB will have trouble sourcing the debt to purchase), this meeting will bring from the shadows the procedures by which the ECB expects to proceed. Such details likely leave much wanting from traders looking for salacious information to operate around (something to look for would be to confirm that the ECB won't be discriminating against debt with negative yields, like the short-end of the German yield curve).

The weigh-station aspect of today's meeting will come in the form of the updated economic projections. With energy prices low and the Euro weak, we expect both real GDP and inflation forecasts to be boosted in the future, mainly 2016 and 2017. While the 2015 real GDP forecast will probably be nudged higher, the 2015 inflation rate will likely not; the market’s reaction around the projections will be a good indicator of the direction of the Euro for the coming weeks.

If market participants believe in the ECB’s projections, then they will concurrently figure that the September 2016 end-date for the EAPP is also reasonable; otherwise, if a credibility gap presents itself, then traders might assume more easing must be done in the future for the ECB to achieve its mandate of price stability over the medium-term – something it has failed to do over the past four years.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, EURGBP, and EURJPY.

Read more: Into the Storm: US ADP, ISM Services Start Three Day Data Blitz

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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