News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • Angola to cut November oil exports to lowest since at least 2008 - Angola exported 1.1mbpd of crude oil in September, according to Refinitiv
  • ECB's Kazaks - The 2% price target will not be met in the medium term - Inflation outlook likely to be revised higher
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • ECB's De Cos says conclusion of FT report is incompatible with ECB guidance $EUR
  • 💶 Inflation Rate YoY Final (AUG) Actual: 3% Expected: 3% Previous: 2.2%
  • 💶 Inflation Rate MoM Final (AUG) Actual: 0.4% Expected: 0.4% Previous: -0.1%
  • 💶 Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (AUG) Actual: 1.6% Expected: 1.6% Previous: 0.7%
  • Heads Up:💶 Inflation Rate YoY Final (AUG) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 3% Previous: 2.2%
  • Heads Up:💶 Inflation Rate MoM Final (AUG) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.4% Previous: -0.1%
Trade Setups in USD-Majors Around January Nonfarm Payrolls

Trade Setups in USD-Majors Around January Nonfarm Payrolls

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Economists have overestimated 9 of last 10 JanuaryNFPs.

- GBPUSD, USDJPY best poised to take advantage if NFPs are weak.

- See the February Forex Seasonality report and the implications for the majors.

The US Dollar is trading slightly off of its yearly highs ahead of the January NFP report, and traders have good reason to be concerned. Economic data has been roundly disappointing thus far in 2015, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index falling to -27.2, the lowest level since late-April 2014.

When we look at the consensus estimate for the January NFPs provided by Bloomberg News at +230K, we can’t help but think forecasters are exhibiting recency bias – allowing the positive jobs trend in 2014 to hangover into the January 2015 estimate. This is not a unique occurrence: over the last ten years, economists have overestimated the initial January print a total of nine times.

Our concern is increased when taking the January ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment subindex into account: at 51.6, it represented the slowest pace of growth since February 2014. A print below +200K would not be surprising; if so, the US Dollar could suffer against the Japanese Yen as yield differentials collapse further amid expectations of a Fed rate hike being pushed back.

See the above video for technical considerations in USDOLLAR, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and AUDUSD..

Read more: Trade Setups in GBP-crosses Before and After BoE

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.