News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/lx3cMSpZNc
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfUNW0y https://t.co/n4NXZUovb0
  • Scoping out next week for trading the market, there are a range of high profile influences including September PMIs, Evergrande and a range of central bank decisions. Top listing on my docket is the #FOMC with my scenarios below. Full analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/18/SP-500-and-Dollar-on-the-Hook-for-Breaks-with-Evergrande-Fed-and-September-Trade-Ahead.html https://t.co/ZdoMJS9fp5
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/Q3Yfe6TMLw
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
T-Minus 0: Trade Setups in EUR as ECB Prepares for QE Liftoff

T-Minus 0: Trade Setups in EUR as ECB Prepares for QE Liftoff

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- H4 close above 1.1640 could see big short covering in EURUSD.

- EURGBP breakdown remains valid below 0.7750.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Thursday, January 22, 2015.

The moment we've all been waiting for since early-December has finally arrived. Will speculation around the ECB live up to the hype?

The Hype

- The European Court of Justice last week (essentially) ruled that there were no major legal hurdles between the ECB and a QE program.

- The Swiss National Bank's surprise decision to remove the EURCHF floor in the face of rising costs of maintaining the floor.

- Draghi's preferred market-measure of inflation slumped below 1.200% by the end of last week.

- The ECB balance sheet is mostly unchanged over the past month; the TLTROs and ABS program have been insufficient.

The Hurdle

- The ECB's pre-announcement leak sent EURUSD into a >100-pip spin yesterday morning. The basis? A €50bn/month QE program that would bring the ECB's balance sheet to roughly €3.2 trillion by the end of 2016.

- For a true surprise the ECB now needs to show that it is willing to go beyond these expected parameters.

Disappointment can be particularly explosive today for volatility, insofar as the market is already exceptionally short EUR. The futures market is currently as saturated with Euro short positions as it was in July 2012, when the Euro bottomed. Furthermore, short positioning has ratcheted up the past four weeks. For the week ended January 13, there were 167.9K net-short contracts; for the week ended December 9, 2014, there were 136.9K net-short contracts.

See the above video for our expectations going into the ECB meeting as well as technical considerations and trade ideas in EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDUSD and GBPCAD.

Join me in the DailyFX Live Trading Room today at 07:30 EST/12:30 GMT for live coverage of the ECB rate decision.

Read more: T-Minus 1: Setting Expectations for Tomorrow's ECB Meeting

Note: FXCM, Inc., parent company of DailyFX, has raised margin requirements ahead of volatility risk.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES