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FOMC Preview and ST EUR/USD Outlook

FOMC Preview and ST EUR/USD Outlook

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD maintains H4 trend pattern since December 17.

- EURGBP failure at triangle retest could produce new lows.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Wednesday, January 7, 2015.

As we approach the December FOMC minutes release, it's time to dig into the last policy statement to look for clues. Of note, language used to reflect the Fed's attitude towards raising interest rates will be examined closely, insofar as to either bolster or bring down the market's consensus belief that the US Dollar's rally is supported by a hawkish-leaning Fed.

While the phrase "considerable time" was left in the statement, the FOMC's choice to include the word "patient" to describe its attitude towards raising rates is an interesting one. In fact, the last time the FOMC statement included the word "patient" in this context was back in January 2004 and March 2004, which preceded the June 2004 rate hike. The phrase "considerable period" was used in the four prior statements in 2003, for comparison.

Taken in conjunction with the Fed funds rate, which is currently pricing in a rate hike in nine months, it's not unreasonable to assume that, if economic data unfolds as the majority of the Fed believes, we could be looking at a rate hike sometime midyear (June to September).

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, and EURGBP.

Read more: Dollar Divergence Evident as AUD Steadies, EUR, GBP Stumble

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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