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Crude Oil, RUB Meltdown Continue - Not Impacting USD Profit Taking

Crude Oil, RUB Meltdown Continue - Not Impacting USD Profit Taking

2014-12-16 11:22:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDRUB screams through 70 for first time on oil near $54/brl.

- EURUSD wedge gains momentum higher.

- December forex seasonality foresaw a modestly weaker Euro.

There may be carnage in parts of the commodity currency complex, but the broader impact has thus far been limited. With crude oil prices collapsing to $54.00/brl this morning, several of the Dutch Disease-inflicted currencies (to varying degrees - the CAD, NOK, RUB, and SEK) are seeing new yearly lows set versus the US Dollar with relative ease.

Even as USDRUB moves beyond 70 and higher for the first time ever, the benefits achieved by the US Dollar have been limited. Instead, it appears that year-end profit taking and overstretched positioning in 2014's best performing major currency are still the driving forces. Accordingly, the EURUSD wedge from last week looks increasingly valid as a short-term bottom.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD and USDJPY, as well as a discussion on oil, RUB, and the impacted commodity currencies.

Read more: ST Technicals Offer Moment of Reflection in EUR-crosses

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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