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USDOLLAR Topping Threat Lingers - Watching Daily 13-EMA

USDOLLAR Topping Threat Lingers - Watching Daily 13-EMA

2014-12-12 12:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EURUSD, USDCHF return back to wedge breaking points.

- GBPUSD maintaining range in 1.5585/1.5785.

- See the 'high' importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

Yesterday's better than expected November US Advance Retail Sales report may have provided a temporary, fundamental jolt in the arm to the US Dollar, but the effects have not persisted. Instead, the lingering threat of a top in the top performing major currency in 2014 - evidence of profit taking into year-end - continues to be the determining factor in the market.

Today, the greenback has another shot at redemption in the form of the preliminary December US U. of Michigan Confidence report. November’s sentiment index (88.8) measured at the highest level since 2007, due exclusively to an increase in the current conditions rather than the expectations portion of the index. If December’s preliminary reading is driven by the same sub-component, a confidence figure of similar strength is likely expected.

The labor market remains a strong source of optimism for US consumers. Payroll gains in November were robust at +321K, the strongest month of hiring since January of 2012. Furthermore, in November the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%. Like yesterday's consumption figures, a 'good' read may offer some reprieve for the US Dollar; while a 'bad' print could provoke stress in an already-weak technical structure.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, and NZDUSD.

Read more: Wedges in EUR/USD, USD/CHF Highlight Potential for USD Top

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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