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Wedges in EUR/USD, USD/CHF Highlight Potential for USD Top

Wedges in EUR/USD, USD/CHF Highlight Potential for USD Top

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD bullish rising wedge could resolve to 1.2605, 1.2890.

- USDCHF needs confirmation below 0.9645.

- See the 'high' importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

After several quiet days, the US economic calendars wakes back up with top tier event risk in the form of this morning's November Advance Retail Sales report. The onset of holiday spending is expected to extend October’s +0.5% monthly gain by at the holding up at +0.3%. Expected continuation rather than accelerating growth likely results from stagnation in wages: average hourly earnings rose only +2.2% y/y in October in comparison to the +4% achieved in the years prior to the financial crisis.

However, in spite of this degree of pessimism aggregate numbers are otherwise positive. With PCE elevated +0.2% in October the National Retail Federation expects combined sales in November and December to increase by +4.1% y/y, up from +3.1% y/y in 2013. If the forecasts prove accurate, Advance Retail Sales should hold steady and may even see a figure more favorable than +0.3%.

The US Dollar needs a fundamental jolt to put the breaks on its recent swing lower, as more evidence crops up of a potential top in the best major currency of 2014. See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, and EURGBP - keep an eye on those wedges in particular.

Read more: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Lead Potential USDOLLAR Topping Process

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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