News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Had the pleasure of jumping on The Trade today on @ausbiztv to go over what long-term price action can tell us about the future trajectory of #copper, $AUDUSD and the $DXY Big thanks to @KaraOrdway for having me on! https://t.co/awjKgmOTwS
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 57.5 Previous: 57.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • 🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) Actual: 1.38% Expected: 1.38% Previous: 1.55% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.38% Previous: 1.55% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.75% Gold: 0.92% Silver: 0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/SDuwP1gB7E
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.72% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.65% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.49% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/maFKPUDES5
  • Dramatic-looking Bearish Engulfing candle pattern with negative RSI divergence on the weekly #AUDUSD chart. A turn may be brewing. https://t.co/25jfu7eHaB
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/2Xfmpbd24B
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.78%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.27%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pXjqRmdicy
  • Australian Dollar Unfazed by Chinese PMI as RBA Meeting Shifts Into View - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/01/Australian-Dollar-Unfazed-by-Chinese-PMI-as-RBA-Meeting-Shifts-Into-View.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $AUD $AUDUSD https://t.co/mR4b8YAVIe
Quick, Call the SNB! EUR/CHF Sf1.2000 Floor in Sight

Quick, Call the SNB! EUR/CHF Sf1.2000 Floor in Sight

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURCHF nears Sf1.2000 floor, at lowest rate since Sept 2012.

- EURUSD acting as inverse of USDCHF; EUR loses elsewhere.

- Rolling 20-day correlation between EUR and CHF is +0.98.

The Euro-Zone financial crisis and its resulting toll on monetary policy weren't limited to the European Central Bank: the Swiss National Bank has been an adjunct branch in recent years, forced to act as the ECB acts, ever since the SNB levied the Sf1.2000 floor on September 6, 2011. We may be on the verge of a paradigm shift, however.

On November 30, Swiss residents will vote on a referendum that could force the SNB to increase its foreign reserve allocation to gold, up to 20% from the 8% level it currently resides at. Considering that the SNB has been buying EURCHF left and right in order to keep the Sf1.2000 floor in check, traders have reached a natural conclusion: the SNB will be forced to sell foreign currency out of its reserves to reallocate to gold; and that means the SNB would likely be selling Euros.

Regardless of the speculation around the SNB referendum, attempting to stay long against the floor may be a tricky bet. We prefer to stay on the opposite side of the trade of the crowd; so the fact that the retail crowd is now long EURCHF by a ratio of over 50 longs per 1 short, we are adament about staying away from the long side here.

Curiously, a break of the Sf1.2000 floor in EURCHF might prove to be positive for EURUSD. First, EUR and CHF have traded to a +0.98 correlation over the past 20-days, implying that EURUSD and USDCHF are moving in near-lockstep, just inversed.

Second, recall what happened on September 6, 2011, when the floor was raised: USDCHF rallied and EURUSD fell, as traders were forced to diversify out of the CHF as a safe haven and take on more USD exposure. Should the referendum pass, an unwind of this relationship could occur (though, if EUR is being sold to purchase gold, the magnitude of support provided to EURUSD may be dampened).

Read more: Hints of Future Easing Keep Euro Pinned Lower, for Now

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES