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EUR-Crosses Trading Plan for the Week Ahead

EUR-Crosses Trading Plan for the Week Ahead

2014-10-13 10:20:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURJPY by far weakest looking EUR-pair.

- EURAUD may be flagging; EURGBP, EURUSD test downtrends.

- Euro Rebounds Prove Shallow as Euro-Zone Sits on Cusp of Recession

The Euro has been besieged by market forces over the last three months, but there are nascent signs of a potential bottom developing. For starters, retail crowd positioning in EURUSD has lost its net-long edge, having flipped back and forth over the past few days. The crowd last changed from net-short to net-long back in May before the breakdown accelerated.

While less extreme, futures traders’ sentiment has changed very little over the past month. Net non-commercial/speculative positioning stood at 146.2K net-short contracts, just off the 161.4K net-short contracts for the week ended September 2. This is still a significant amount of shorts to be covered should a rally occur.

The technical pictures are starting to improve for several of the EUR-crosses, reflecting the shifting positioning/sentiment data. EURJPY is the outlier in the group and has fallen to critical support. A further EURJPY sell-off is likely contingent on further pressure developing in global equity markets.

If EURJPY were to stabilize around its current levels it could be due to the generally improved mood for most of the EUR-complex elsewhere. EURUSD has pivoted off a higher low and is threatening the daily 13-EMA once more, while EURAUD attempted to break its bull flag today.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURAUD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and EURUSD.

Read more: FX Markets Flash Classic ’Risk Off’ Mode, Boosting Demand for JPY, USD

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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