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FX Markets Flash Classic 'Risk Off' Mode, Boosting Demand for JPY, USD

FX Markets Flash Classic 'Risk Off' Mode, Boosting Demand for JPY, USD

2014-10-10 11:05:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- US Dollar rebounding but so too are other low yielding havens.

- Commodity currency enthusiasm post-NFPs wiped out

- October Forex Seasonality Foretells End of Seasonal USD Weakness

The US Dollar has reversed sharply from yesterday's lows, but the theme on which the move is predicated couldn't be more discouraging: a global sell-off. Higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets are taking it on the chin for the second day in a row, in part due to a growing belief that economic downturn anew is hitting the global economy.

This has set the stage with some fairly interesting setups in some of the USD-pairs, in light of the fact that many of them were rejected at general trend resistance across the board since July, the 13-EMA (see: AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDOLLAR).

As it were, a renewed pullback in AUDUSD and EURUSD accompanied by a falling USDJPY alongside equity markets makes for interesting dinner conversation with AUDJPY and EURJPY. In fact, both AUDJPY and EURJPY are now on the precipice of major technical support, which, if gives way, could signal a regime change in FX markets early in Q4.

Read more: October Forex Seasonality Foretells End of Seasonal USD Weakness

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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