We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Breaking news

ECB leaves all rates unchanged in line with expectations

Real Time News
  • RT @BIS_org: The #euro’s share in terms of #OTCderivatives gross market value rose to 44% in 2019, above the #USdollar share of 24% #Trienn…
  • $USD $DXY: US Dollar Index spiking higher off a critical support level underpinned by the 97.00 handle. The pivot to the upside was sparked by another optimistic #tradetalk headline with the move erasing half of yesterday's downside driven by the December FOMC meeting https://t.co/kTg62HSeH2
  • IMF Spokesman Rice: - Hopeful for progress being made on US-China talks $USDCNH $SPX
  • $USDJPY support held through the $USD sell-off, price action springs to life on the trade deal tweet https://t.co/ekebDkQqzM
  • China calls Trump's bluff markets still don't care https://t.co/GpolEhbrlN
  • Voting has begun in the #UKElection with the polls due to close at 10pm local time, an exit poll to be published soon after and results expected late Thursday and on Friday. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/KQdaF3ySJp #Brexit https://t.co/tb0dwBMIDC
  • $USDJPY jumps following trade headlines https://t.co/05H6Jip2mG
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.45% Silver: -0.28% Gold: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/8trC0Edjvp
  • Now that's a move with conviction!! Offshore Yuan plunges below the 7.0 mark after President Trump tweets that we are 'very close to a big deal with China' https://t.co/vVmaeqmikp https://t.co/Q3BktpjsKU
  • #Gold slips after US offers China tariff concessions ahead of the December 15th tariff deadline $XAUUSD https://t.co/8FEUsU8GIk
Pre-NFP Setups Show Strong Yet Vulnerable USDOLLAR

Pre-NFP Setups Show Strong Yet Vulnerable USDOLLAR

2014-09-05 11:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDJPY posting an inverted hammer against its yearly high.

- USDOLLAR Index support comes in at 10689, the 8-EMA.

- August NFPs: +230K exp vs +209K prior.

The USDOLLAR Index is attempting to break through its yearly highs set in January, but an overextended bull run and softening technicals leave the greenback vulnerable to a weak NFP report. That's not to say a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected - consensus estimates call for the seventh consecutive month of jobs growth >+200K, the best streak since 1997.

Instead, the fact that the US Dollar is both strong yet vulnerable is a testament to its recent seemingly non-stop rally. Ever since EURUSD lost $1.3335 in mid-August, buying pressure under the greenback has been rampant.

Considering that non-commercials/speculators were already their most short in two years coming into this week and then yesterday we saw the largest decline and volume day in EURUSD in over two years, it's possible that the supply of sellers of the Euro/buyers of the US Dollar may be in low stock.

Positioning is important as it could transform a meagerly disappointing NFP print into something magnified; the straw that breaks the camel's back and produces a wave of profit taking across the USD-spectrum. A strong NFP here, barring a print in excess of +300K, might find it hard to produce another string of fresh highs in the USD-pairs.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, USDJPY, and the USDOLLAR Index ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report today at 12:30 GMT.

Read more: Trade Setups in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD Before and After ECB

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.