News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.01% FTSE 100: -0.20% Germany 30: -0.78% France 40: -1.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Q6UKBovHvF
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/XUUPRdY06p https://t.co/3PZaK76ujX
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Unemployment Rate (Q3) due at 09:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 23.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/9:30 AM GMT for insight on London #FX and #CFD trading. Register here: https://t.co/AoM3UvLtcF https://t.co/iSGErOq12D
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/oIGwwUxkA1
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/UYZKfhgVKI
  • 🇪🇸 Unemployment Rate (Q3) Actual: 16.26% Expected: 15.9% Previous: 15.33% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.88%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AkpsGpdS41
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Unemployment Rate (Q3) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 15.9% Previous: 15.33% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.84% Oil - US Crude: 0.44% Gold: 0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/kuo5ryd7Y5
Trade Setups in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD Before and After ECB

Trade Setups in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD Before and After ECB

2014-09-04 10:40:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- EURUSD support found near September 2013 swing lows.

- ECB might unveil ABS-program but not Fed-styled QE.

- Euro bears shouldn't expect QE from ECB this week.

The day of reckoning has arrived for the European Central Bank, after what has been a tnese build up in expectations the past week-plus after President Mario Draghi's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The August 22 speech paved the way for fresh expectations about new easing measures as the region's growth, inflation, and employment prospects all withered in tandem by mid-2014.

Recent economic data has been so poor that another dip into recession across the Euro-Zone is possible – the third recession since the start of the global financial crises beginning in 2007. The Euro Citi Economic Surprise Index has fallen to -53.8 today, the lowest level of the year (for comparison, the US Dollar CESI is +41.2).

The scope for action today is probably limited, considering the banking stress tests are still underway. Even if a rate cut is put into place - contradicting ECB President Draghi's stance that rates had "reached the lower bound" - a recent Reuters poll showed that 21 of the 23 traders questioned believed a 10-bps rate cut wouldn't help boost interbank lending in the region.

If something along the lines of QE is announced, the predominant EUR-bearish trend of the past four months will probably rear its ugly head once more. But if the market comes away disappointed with the ECB, there are actionable reversal opportunities developing in the EUR-complex, like this flag in EURGBP:

EURGBP Daily Chart - April 2012 to Present

Trade Setups in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD Before and After ECB

See the above video for technical considerations in EURJPY, EURGBP, and EURUSD ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting today. I'll be covering the event live starting at 11:30 GMT in the DailyFX Live Trading Room.

Read more: EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Near Potential Reversal Points Ahead of ECB

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES