News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long AUD/JPY for the first time since Mar 26, 2021 when AUD/JPY traded near 83.81. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to AUD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/FxH5sekPJl
  • Technically-speaking $GBPUSD's rebound today looks less like a hold to bullish trend convention and more likely a breather in a larger bearish shift. Still, market conditions are still not particularly favorable for trends https://t.co/Zh9XPIcWcs
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.82% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.81% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.74% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.52% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.44% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/tNVuht89y8
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.52% US 500: 1.15% Germany 30: 1.05% FTSE 100: 0.73% France 40: 0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MTUvyFX2Dm
  • Fed's Kaplan - This level of liquidity being injected encourages people to go out on the risk curve - Not worried this is going to create undue financial instability - But worried about the amount of risk taking
  • Happy Monday Traders! The volatility for the Dollar and major US indices continues this week with a correction in prevailing trends. DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKickligher gives you the run down. https://t.co/rxQ1GFgVE6
  • Fed's Kaplan - Moderating asset purchases sooner rather than later may increase Fed's odds of achieving inflation goal
  • RT @ecb: Introductory statement by President Christine @Lagarde at a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the Europ…
  • ECB's Lagarde - spread of virus mutation continues to be a source of risk - brighter prospects for global demand and a faster than anticipated increase in consumer spending could result in an even stronger recovery $EUR
  • Fed's Bullard - This is not an environment where tapering could be put on auto pilot - Good question about whether it is the time to retire Fed's intervention in the MBS market
EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Near Potential Reversal Points Ahead of ECB

EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Near Potential Reversal Points Ahead of ECB

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD could rally near-term if it clears 1.3160.

- EURJPY inverse H&S valid above 138.02/05.

- Euro bears shouldn't expect QE from ECB this week.

EURUSD has fallen around -6% from its yearly high set in May, but a near-term reversal moment may be approaching for the 18-member currency with the ECB set to meet tomorrow. On the geopolitical front, headlines of a possible negotiated ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine is offering relief to instruments negatively impacted by the crisis - the Euro, the Russian Ruble, the German Dax, etc.

While reports have been conflicting over the state of a potential ceasefire, we have at least observed that the prospect of peace is a bullish catalyst for the Euro in the short-term. This may be adding tinder to the pile.

Earlier this week we discussed why traders shouldn't be anticipating a large scale, unprecedented easing program such as a Fed-styled QE from the ECB, which in light of recent economic data, may be setting the markets up for disappointment.

In any event, any potential forthcoming rallies in the EUR-complex will likely be considered short covering rallies rather than "the bottom" in my opinion, as the divergences between the Euro and the other major currencies are starting to grow from a fundamental perspective. It's worth noting that non-commercials/speculators currently hold 150.7K net-short contracts, the most since July 24, 2012 (155.1K contracts).

See the above video for technical considerations in EURJPY and EURUSD ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting tomorrow. I'll be covering the event live starting at 11:30 GMT in the DailyFX Live Trading Room.

Read more: USD/JPY Triangle, EUR/JPY Inverse H&S Point to Weaker Yen Soon

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES