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Waiting on EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flags to Break

Waiting on EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flags to Break

2014-08-12 11:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EURUSD break of yearly low 1.3334 eyes 1.3295.

- USDCHF may be flagging for 0.9160/89.

- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the US Dollar, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a US Dollar currency basket.

In the QE era (which appears to be winding down now that the Federal Reserve has cut QE3 to $25B/month), August has proven to be a contra-trend month for the US Dollar. For your consideration, August offers pause during a stretch in which the US Dollar has lost ground in four of five months on a seasonal basis.

After the US Dollar’s broad outperformance in July (5-year seasonality called for the second weakest month of the year for the greenback), it is possible that a bullishly augmented technical picture boosts the profile of only a seasonally weak positive month.

Viewed in this perspective, the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, and CAD) look most vulnerable after their disappointing end to last month. However, the technical picture for the European currencies has worsened significantly, buttressed by heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

See the above video for technical outlooks for EURUSD and USDCHF as they flag in their current trends, while GBPUSD looks forward to a huge volume day tomorrow around the Bank of England Inflation Report (which I'll be covering live at 9:15 GMT in the DailyFX Live Trading Room).

Read more: US Dollar Coils for Next Leg - Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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