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USDOLLAR Failure at Key Resistance Sets Up Better Selling in EUR/USD

USDOLLAR Failure at Key Resistance Sets Up Better Selling in EUR/USD

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD could rally back towards 1.3475 and maintain bear trend.

- USDJPY looks less reliable than AUDUSD or GBPUSD.

- August forex seasonality in QE era supports a stronger US Dollar.

The USDOLLAR Index has failed to punch through 10544, setting up a return to crucial breakout support near 10495. The implications for the major USD-crosses are mixed; GBPUSD, for example, has slipped to fresh August lows today as the Sterling underperforms across the board.

A struggling USDOLLAR Index comes at the hands of EURUSD and USDJPY, both of which have made acute reversals from their recent USD-favorable moves. USDJPY briefly traded above ¥103.00 on August 1; it has traded as low as ¥101.50 today.

EURUSD's slip to fresh yearly lows at $1.3332 has been met with a bit of covering after the ECB meeting, and $1.3400 was seen briefly this morning. In the near-term, the H4 indicators have turned bullish for the Euro, while the daily Stochastics and MACD appear to be in a countertrend, corrective mode. Bears are in control below $1.3475 for good reasons, however.

See the accompanying video above (~5 minutes) for the technical considerations for EURUSD, USDJPY, and AUDUSD.

Read more: Euro Squeeze Waits on Draghi Presser ECB Meets

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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