We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.06%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 73.55%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PKjxdSlcpU
  • LIVE NOW: Join Technical Strategist @MBForex for his Weekly Strategy Webinar to review the setups we're tracking into the open of the week!- https://t.co/chKtG7ezG9
  • Weekly Strategy Webinar starting in 13mins! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.26% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.24% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZggGcyxXJq
  • 🇮🇳 Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) Actual: 6.09% Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.91% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • Hey traders! I'm sure you've all heard about trend trading. Sharpen your knowledge here: https://t.co/jkliL5sxj7 https://t.co/0MG5XPiDF6
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.91% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • RT @DanielGMoss: #Silver surging to fresh yearly highs as the RSI bursts into overbought territory Significant change in sentiment as pri…
  • Join @MBForex at 8:30 AM ET/12:30 PM GMT for his weekly strategy #webinar Register here: https://t.co/VAnAfZU02T https://t.co/fu8UmwtSkz
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
Most EUR-crosses in Trouble if EUR/JPY Under 136.20- Which One Isn't?

Most EUR-crosses in Trouble if EUR/JPY Under 136.20- Which One Isn't?

2014-08-06 11:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- EURJPY, EURUSD look to extend recent downside pivots.

- EURCAD may be a long candidate above 1.4660.

- August forex seasonality in QE era supports a stronger US Dollar.

Both EURJPY and EURUSD have started to slip towards major support levels. In a sense, both pairs' dives are Euro-centric: more weak economic data out of the Euro-Zone compounded by fears of protracted conflict in Eastern Europe. The impact is not limited to FX: the German DAX has fallen -9.90% (10050.98 to 9055.57) since its all-time high on June 20.

EURUSD remains on track to test the November 2013 lows (after the "surprise" ECB rate cut) near $1.3295, having just lost and set new weekly, monthly, and yearly lows under $1.3358. Beyond Euro-centric issues, EURUSD is being weighed down by several strongUS economic dataprints in a row.

Considering that EURJPY captures the 'risk averse' perspective in FX thanks to the Yen component, we'd be truly concerned for the EUR-complex if EURJPY were able to clear its February 2014 swing low near ¥136.22. The downtrend from the May 13, June 9, and July 3 highs remains in place; a move through ¥136.22 should see price down to ¥135.50 quickly (¥134.10 next support).

Positioning suggests that we need to be on guard for a short covering rally in the Euro, however. Non-commercials/speculators have increased net-short positions (108K contracts) to their highest levels since the week ended August 21, 2012 (124K contracts).

If there is a short covering rally, EURCAD may be primed to run higher. EURCAD may be setting a double bottom between C$1.4440 and 1.4660, calling for a move to C$1.4880. Note that daily MACD is close to moving above the zero line for the first time since April 28.

See the video above for the technical considerations of EURJPY, EURUSD, and EURCAD.

Read more: EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flag Before Next Move - GBP/CAD Up Next

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.