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Managing USD Expectations with EUR/USD, USD/CAD (but not USD/JPY)

Managing USD Expectations with EUR/USD, USD/CAD (but not USD/JPY)

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Index attempts to move higher, but be cautious.

- 'Not all USD-pairs are created equal' - ie USDJPY is not ideal.

- Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD.

For the second day in a row the European economic calendar was particularly barren, but event risk traders will find solace in several potentially market moving data releases out of the United States this morning.

Considering the importance of inflation to the Federal Reserve's 'lower for longer' interest rate policy, the 12:30 GMT release of the June US Consumer Price Index is probably the most important event on the calendar this morning (ancillary US housing data is due at 14:00 GMT).

In recent weeks, Fed Chair Yellen has described the recent uptick in price pressures as 'noisy,' if only to downplay the likelihood that the Fed will hike interest rates in the first half of 2015. However, with the US labor market exceeding even the Fed's optimistic projections, further upside inflation pressures will only incentivize traders to position themselves for higher short-term rates in the near-future.

While the USDOLLAR Index may be ticking higher the past several days, it's worth pointing out that 'all USD-pairs are not created equal.' We say that because, on a relative basis, there are still some currencies outperforming the US Dollar, or at least keeping pace (see: USDJPY's 2% range over the past five months).

Instead, as the technical video above outlines, it's important to be selective with USD-pair exposure. If the buck weakens, attention should immediately turn to USDJPY. But if the greenback is to get stronger, EURUSD (breaking its July 2012-July 2013 uptrend) and USDCAD (attempting to break through the March-June downtrend) are both better positioned to express USD strength.

Read more: EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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