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EUR/USD Pinned as EUR/JPY Pivots from June Swing; USD/CAD Emerges

EUR/USD Pinned as EUR/JPY Pivots from June Swing; USD/CAD Emerges

2014-07-14 10:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EURJPY, EURUSD holding ground despite many negative events.

- GBPCHF remains a buy on dips, USDCAD breakout emerges.

- Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD.

If there was ever a week that could transpire a series of events flush in Euro negativity, last week failed to live up to the billing. A revival of Euro-Zone debt crisis fears made its way through bond and equity markets, June US labor market data clobbered expectations, and the June FOMC minutes showed a Fed more eager to wind down its QE3 program.

Nevertheless, EURUSD finished higher on the week, highlighting the drag low volatility conditions have placed on meaningful follow through in some of the major currency pairs. (On paper, one would have been led to believe the aforementioned events would have led to significant EUR selling.)

So while we continue to monitor EURJPY and EURUSD as their daily charts highlight sell signals in various indicators, there is admittedly a lack of momentum. The current rangebound states could be the default setting without a more substantial catalyst.

Elsewhere the two non-EUR pairs we're looking at are GBPCHF and USDCAD. Whereas GBPCHF is experiencing a slight pullback amid the EUR rebound, the nature of the Slow Stochastics and MACD indicators thus far offers no reason to think that the uptrend from mid-March is threatened, as the nature of the indicators and price action is still intact.

See the video above for a technical discussion on EURJPY, EURUSD, and GBPCHF, as well as notes on the recent USDCAD buying opportunity at long-term support.

Read more: GBP-crosses Present ST Opportunities as BoE Balancing Act Ensues

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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