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USD/JPY at Range Low as EUR/JPY Nears Key Support - Breakouts Coming?

USD/JPY at Range Low as EUR/JPY Nears Key Support - Breakouts Coming?

2014-06-27 10:50:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDJPY sitting at January-June range support at 101.30.

- EURJPY maintains post-May ECB meeting downtrend.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Friday, June 27, 2014.

Japan faces a minor* impediment right now, which is that core inflation is above the Bank of Japan’s +2% target. Why is this issue? It’s best to explain the minor* notation, then.

Wage growth in Japan is absolutely anemic – figures suggest that average wage hikes are amounting to what is the equivalent of being able to purchase an extra four Big Macs from McDonald’s during the course of the year.

Inflation is developing in the wrong areas, which is why the approach to the +2% target is a problem: food and energy costs are going up. How Japan will make its way through these competing forces – low wage growth, higher taxes, and higher inflation – without the consumer bowing out for a significant period of time remains to be seen.

Should the Japanese consumer slowdown – last night’s May Household Spending data showed a -8% y/y decline – the impact on broader Japanese growth would be profound, as the consumer accounts for approximately 60% of Japanese GDP.

Stagnation could develop once again if wage growth doesn’t pick up: consumers simply won’t be able to carry the economy forward, and any Bank of Japan action could reignite Yen weakness, though at that point in time, the focus regarding Japan’s seemingly insurmountable debt burden may be more matured.

For now, with BoJ action still distant (the impetus is with fiscal policymakers and the next leg of Abenomics), the fundamental and technical stars may be aligning for a strong Yen as the Nikkei 225 comes under pressure. Watch the video for a broader discussion and technical outlooks for EURJPY, GBPJPY, and USDJPY.

Read more:EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF Flags Ready for Liftoff as Carney Signals Policy Shift

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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