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ST Triangle in EUR/USD Ready to Break as USDOLLAR Flags Out of Wedge

ST Triangle in EUR/USD Ready to Break as USDOLLAR Flags Out of Wedge

2014-06-25 11:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR breaking out of falling wedge and symmetrical triangle.

- EURUSD nears event horizon for triangle breakout point.

- June seasonality still working against the buck, however.

A sharp turnaround in long-end US yields yesterday undermined enthusiasm for the US Dollar after several outstanding data release in the morning set dollar bulls off to the races. Yet in spite of the meltdown in stocks and surge higher in bonds, the US Dollar has still made meaningful advances over the past several days.

Whereas GBPUSD weakness has been mild and is just starting to show, the EURUSD has been frozen solid the past three days, trading in such narrow ranges that both the Slow Stochastics and MACD on the H4 timeframe have completely flattened out.

EURUSD presents a better opportunity than GBPUSD (in either direction), especially if the broader USDOLLAR Index has indeed broken out of two recent triangles on H4 timeframes and lower, which would suggest more US Dollar strength.

There are several events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar today starting at 12:30 GMT that could have a significant impact on the US Dollar. Mainly, the final Q1 GDP revisions and May Durable Goods Orders should stoke meaningful activity in interest rate-related markets, leaving USD-majors ripe for a bout of volatility shortly.

Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the US Dollar, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a US Dollar currency basket.

Read more: Carney Walks Back Hawkish Tone Setting Up ST GBP/USD Selling

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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